Before the NLDS got underway, we previewed the series, which now stands tied at one game apiece. As is often the case in the playoffs, the pitching matchups for the latter part of the series hadn’t been announced—at least not officially—at the time of that writing.
With up to three games remaining and a spot in the NLCS on the line, let’s take a look at the probable pitchers for the rest of the series. Full disclosure: the Aaron Nola bit here is copied straight from the original series preview.
Game 3—Tuesday, October 8: Sean Manaea vs. Aaron Nola at 5:08 PM EDT on FS1
Manaea (2024): 181.2 IP, 184 K, 63 BB, 21 HR, 3.47 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 87 ERA- / Postseason: 5.0 IP, 4 K, 0 BB, 1 HR, 3.60 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 91 ERA-
Until Kodai Senga gets back to pitching full-length starts on a regular basis, Manaea is arguably the Mets’ ace. His start against the Brewers in the Wild Card round was pretty decent, but a better outing in this game would obviously be huge.
Nola (2024): 199.1 IP, 197 K, 50 BB, 30 HR, 3.57 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 86 ERA-
The 31-year-old had a much better season this year than he did in 2023, as he finished the latter with a 4.46 ERA. Like Sánchez, his strikeout rate isn’t super high, but his walk rate is excellent. Unlike Sánchez, he was prone to giving up home runs this year, as he allowed 1.35 per nine innings.
Game 4—Wednesday, October 9: Jose Quintana vs. Ranger Suárez at 5:08 PM EDT on FS1
Quintana (2024): 170.1 IP, 135 K, 63 BB, 22 HR, 3.75 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 95 ERA- / Postseason: 6.0 IP, 5 K, 1 BB, 0 HR, 0.00 ERA, 2.00 FIP, 0 ERA-
There were some stretches in the not-too-distant past where Quintana looked like he wasn’t even going to be playoff roster material. Down the stretch, though, he was excellent, and he carried that over into his start against the Brewers, which was the best start the Mets have gotten from anyone thus far in these playoffs.
Suárez (2024): 150.2 IP, 145 K, 41 BB, 14 HR, 3.46 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 84 ERA-
While his overall numbers are still very good this year, Suárez really struggled late in the regular season. Over his final four starts of the year, he had a 7.79 ERA as he faced the Rays, Brewers, Mets, and Nationals. Zooming out a bit more, Suárez missed a month starting in late July with lower back soreness, and he posted a 5.74 ERA over his final seven outings of the season.
Game 5*—Friday, October 11: Kodai Senga vs. Zack Wheeler at 4:08 PM EDT on FS1
Senga (2024): 5.1 IP, 9 K, 1 BB, 1 HR, 3.38 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 85 ERA- / Postseason: 2.0 IP, 3 K, 1 BB, 1 HR, 4.50 ERA, 8.17 FIP, 114 ERA-
All of Senga’s stats this year are an exercise in small sample size, but given the long layoff between major league outings, his appearance in Game 1 should be considered a success. If this series goes to a fifth game and he’s ready to pitch again, he’ll presumably be able to work a bit deeper into the game than he did last time out. Realistically, that’s probably something in the range of 3-4 innings. Should the season be on the line, it’s still a great thing if Senga is pitching in that game at all.
Wheeler (2024): 200.0 IP, 224 K, 52 BB, 20 HR, 2.57 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 62 ERA- / Postseason: 7.0 IP, 9 K, 4 BB, 0 HR, 0.00 ERA, 2.74 FIP, 0 ERA-
Wheeler wasn’t even at his best in this start as he threw quite a few pitches pretty far out of the zone, and he still managed to dominate the Mets’ lineup. Seeing him again in a short span of time could help the Mets out, or he could simply be human and not have quite as excellent a start as he did in Game 1. Still, the Mets should be doing everything in their power to wrap the series up at home and avoid having to try to win a Wheeler start for the second time in less than a week.